Friday, September 17, 2004

Commentary- NASCAR Nextel Cup Chase

The "Race" has begun. Ten drivers, ten races, one championship on the line. To get here was one challenge for some, but the tightrope act begins in Loudon, NH. One slip, and you may be done.

Here are the ten drivers: Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Elliott Sadler, Kurt Busch, Mark Martin, Jeremy Mayfield, and Ryan Newman.

I will provide my commentary on each. I hope that you enjoy the ride!:

1. Jeff Gordon- The odds-on favorite. Four-time Cup winner. Almost always wins when he is in the pole position. The driver you love to hate. Has been a contender practically every year he has been in the series. Very intelligent about the tracks and car set-ups. Rarely gets involved in crashes, or makes very costly mistakes. However, he has had some engine futility as of late, as well as his mentor/teammate. That could come back to snakebite both if they have not rectified it. I am sure that the folks at Hendrick Motorsports have it under control.

Overall, my gut feeling tells me that he will fall just a little short.

2. Jimmie Johnson- Last year's bridesmaid. Points leader for much of the season, and one of the most consistent drivers. Has one of the upcoming crew chiefs in Chad Knaus. If they can forget the last four weeks, they could win it. He will definitely win a Nextel Cup in the next three years.

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- The fan favorite. Has been up in the Top 5 practically all season. His goal was to win it all this year. Started off great by winning two of the first five races, including the Daytona 500. If driver and crew are running on all cylinders like they did early in the season, his mission will be accomplished.

4. Tony Stewart- 2002 Cup winner. One of only a few drivers that can picked to win each week because he is successful at all track types. (Jeff Gordon falls under this category.) One of the best second-half drivers. I would not be surprised if he wins it again.

5. Matt Kenseth- Last year's Cup winner, despite winning only one race. "Mr. Consistentcy". Usually starts in the back, but usually winds up in the Top 10 when the checkered flag is dropped. Low-key as far as media coverage goes. Rarely beats himself, him and crew chief Robbie Reiser make great pit stop decisions, and think way ahead. The points system was established based on consistency, which compliments him very well. Will be there to the end.

6. Elliott Sadler- First time at the dance. Has a teammate there has been there before in Dale Jarrett. I am sure that DJ will be an advisor for him. This is his best year to date. Really has nothing to lose. Longshot to win.

7. Kurt Busch- "The Heel", if the fans had to pick one. Has been successful on all track types. Very talented driver. One of the "Young Guns", he will be a force to be reckoned with sooner than later.

8. Mark Martin- The sentimental favorite. Four-time bridesmaid. A NASCAR legend, in my book. May be his last chance. I would love to see him win it. The Viagra Ford team has worked very hard to get here. Realizing the sense of urgency, they will rally to get him there. Should that happen, it will probably rank up there with the late Dale Earnhardt winning the Daytona 500 in 1998.

9. Jeremy Mayfield- Last week's win at Richmond put him in. I am sure that his owner, Ray Evernham, will help him as far as focus goes, since he won three Cup championships with Jeff Gordon. I do not think that he has a shot to win it all, unless Ray Evernham has a more hands-on approach, along with coach (and former Cup winner) Bill Elliott.

10. Ryan Newman- One of the most intelligent drivers in the garage. Engineering degree, along with his crew. If Matt Kenseth is "The Tortoise", then Ryan Newman could play "The Hare". One of the best track qualifiers in the series. Very tremendous potential. Downside- he and crew chief Matt Borland take too many chances. Some work, some don't. Free swingers like that usually fall short at the end.

If I had to pick a winner with a gun to my head, I would pick ... TONY STEWART. Even though I am a Dale, Jr. fan, Tony Stewart's past record, to me, puts him at the top of my list. I figure that Gordon, Johnson, "Junior", and Kenseth to round out the Top 5 somehow. I would not be surprised if martin is in the mix.

As Bill Weber says, the countdown has now hit zero. Sit back back and enjoy "The Chase For The Cup".

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