Source: http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/07/could_2008_be_a_mccain_landsli.html
July 13, 2008
Ah yes, dear readers, this title has nailed me. I'm an unconventional thinker, a woman who is wont to go madly against the grain, in nearly all matters. I'm usually in the unpopular camp, the one who disdains conventional wisdom and consensus science. I'm just too darned independent-minded for my own good sometimes.
And 2008 is one of those times.
John McCain, the poor dear, is being characterized as the tired, old guy, not only by the media elites and the opposition Party, but nearly just as often, by his own prospective voters. "We're all but doomed," say the naysayers. Even if McCain manages to squeak through the White House door on the slimmest Electoral College majority, it will be by the skin of his ancient teeth, say the analysts.
Nearly all around the globe, the media trumpets are prematurely heralding an Obama victory with a fanfare fitting for the legendary phoenix arising from the ashes. The American Obamaphiles are gleefully fondling all their golden eggs, and busily counting their chickens, positively certain that every single one of them will hatch on November 4.
Maybe; maybe not.
Oh my, I can nearly hear the limb beneath my feet, straining and about to break, as I shimmy out to its farthest reach on this prognostication.
The 2008 Presidential election could be a landslide victory for John McCain.
I'm basing my assessment here on 3 factors: Time, the Anti-Obama vote and Obama's own arrogance.
Time
It's only July 13th, folks. There are 113 days remaining until November 4th. In this internet era, when news travels around the globe faster than a speeding bullet, 113 days are long enough for even the most polished, eloquent orator in American history to put both feet in his mouth dozens of times.
And every time Obama has one of his infamous verbal slips, it's recorded for profit or just plain fun, and spun into enough YouTube entertainment to last into the next decade. Every gaffe, every misstep, every flip-flop, turn-around and attempted take-back that the candidate utters, every single day for the next 113, will be viewed by hundreds of thousands of people, who then take their impressions to the office, the diners, the bus stops, the hairdressers and the assembly lines. The NYT could only ever dream of such influence.
Americans tend to be a forgiving lot, but each one of us has his own personal limit to the number of take-backs he is willing to allow a single person. I'm predicting that as Obama continues to morph into new positions nearly every day, that a great many voters are going to reach the limit, the point where they stop listening to this candidate because they simply stop trusting his word.
Trust is usually proffered generously, but once lost, disillusionment rarely permits its return, at least not within the confines of 113 days.
How many voters will still trust Obama by November 4th? Perhaps far less than the conventional wisdom is predicting. Time is not on Obama's side.
The Anti-Obama Vote
Discouraged conservatives and Republicans, even those who say now that they will stay home on Election Day, are at the end of the day, responsible citizens. They will, I predict, see well in advance of November 4th, just how much damage could be done by Obama, especially if he gets a filibuster-proof Senate majority and an even larger majority in the House of Representatives.
The Republican anti-Obama vote, I believe, will hinge on two issues, namely, the Supreme Court and our war against IslamoFascism. Forward thinking Republican voters will vote for treading water with McCain for 4 years over letting the whole American ship go down to defeat.
Disillusionment among loyal Democrats has already begun and is mounting rapidly. In the wake of Hillary Clinton's concession, a great many disgruntled Democrats started a grassroots groundswell under one banner group, PUMA, which stands for: Party Unity My A**. There are already more than 200 separate groups that are uniting under the PUMA banner, with only one thing in common. They vow that, no matter what, they will not support Barack Obama. There is already "Democrats for McCain" gear and all the hoopla that goes with it.
Add to these renegade groups the fact that Obama currently has a web mutiny on his hands, occurring on his very own networking site. The largest of these mutinous web supporter groups only formed the last week of June and already has more than 22,800 members. This particular group, "Please vote NO on Telecom Immunity - Get FISA right," formed over the latest Obama flip-flop, reneging on his October FISA promise to "support a filibuster of any bill that includes retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies." Obama voted for the FISA bill, with immunity still in it.
As I've said already, trust is a fragile commodity. Once a person loses it, disillusioned followers can get mighty angry and even vindictive. With 113 days to go, and this many folks already vowing that the Obama they see now is "not the Obama they knew," with some even demanding returns on their campaign contributions, the emotional winds that have carried Barack this far may turn on him.
And I'm predicting that they will. By November 4th, we could even see hurricane-force passions blowing against Obama and at McCain's waiting back.
Obama's Arrogance
There are few things in this life as satisfying to more experienced people than to see haughty pride get its comeuppance.
How many working people in this Country have not had at least one experience with a young upstart, walking right out of college and into a position without a lick of hard knocks or humbling pragmatic necessity to be his guide? He's the guy who's got the whole business figured out because he read a book about it, or the gal who thinks raising great kids is no harder than summarizing the mistakes of others. And Barack Obama fits this stereotype to a perfect T.
He's 47 years old, but has spent the bulk of his adult life either coddled in an out-of-touch academia or perennially running for one office after another. He has not even had to stare down or discipline teenage children, for goodness' sake.
Yet, he's got it all figured out, down to the nuts and bolts of exactly why the rest of us "bitter" folks "cling to" our "religions and our guns." His two books are little more than summations of what other people think, their motivations and their difficulties. Reading his two autobiographical books leaves one with the uneasy impression that although Obama thinks he knows everything there is to know about us, he has yet to even figure out himself.
So, this is the man who has all of life and everything about American politics so well mastered, that he thinks he is ready to be President?
The vast majority of American voters are over 30, and in the voting booth, a candidate gets no extra points for excitement. No matter how thrilled some will be to vote for Barack Obama, their votes will count not one whit more than the old-fashioned, responsible votes cast for John McCain.
We've already witnessed Obama's highly fortuitous, completely unpredictable rise.
I'm betting we may also witness his fall before November 4th, and that his fall from grace will be every bit as phenomenal as was his rise.
Kyle-Anne Shiver is a frequent contributor to American Thinker. She welcomes your comments at kyleanneshiver.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment